Fact check on REDD-related studies

cited by DIE ZEIT, The Guardian and Source Material

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February 1, 2023

Three studies, three different results. In their reporting on the effectiveness of Verra certified REDD+ projects in January 2023, The Guardian, DIE ZEIT, and SourceMaterial focus on negative study results, even though these are also countered by positive evaluations in the research cited. This is what our results show after analysing the studies.

To responsibly follow up on the journalists' criticism of the effectiveness of REDD+ projects, we have founded our own task force. This team has analysed the studies cited and we continuously review the REDD+ projects in our portfolio. Here we would like to share the results on the studies and also invite a factual, professional discourse.

The results show that all three studies come to different conclusions. Only the most critical study is referred to in the journalistic exaggeration, for example to reach the conclusion that 94% of REDD+ projects are ineffective. The other studies, which come to different and partly positive results, are hardly mentioned. Nor does the journalist´s reporting include a detailed technical assessment of the different methodologies on which the studies are based. For example, no actual data from the project and reference areas are used, which can lead to misinterpretations.

With all due respect to journalistic processes, from our point of view there is something more important to consider: Together, we should be ensuring that the voluntary market for CO2 emission reductions works as effectively as possible and improve it where necessary. This is precisely why scientific discourse and factual, detailed analysis are so important. We have compiled our findings on the studies and look forward to further support from the scientific community. This discourse can provide solutions to keep strengthening climate action.

If you would like to participate in the expert assessment, please feel free to contact us at community@climatepartner.com or via our social media channels.

Our findings so far are presented below. Verra, the standard that was at the centre of the journalist team's criticism in the reporting, has also reviewed the above studies. This analysis, as well as the assessment of other market participants, can also be found below. It is important for us to mention here that we have to accept that there is no one truth. Rather, a permanent scientific discourse is necessary in order to further improve methods on a regular basis. 

 

The following studies were cited by The Guardian and DIE ZEIT:​​

West et al. (2020)

  • Study: The study by West et al. (2020) conduct a systematic comparison of deforestation baselines (ex-ante) with counterfactual estimates of deforestation by looking at REDD+ projects in the Brazilian amazon.​ ​
     
  • Method: Synthetic control method ​ ​
     
  • Approach: West et al. (2020) use georeferenced property boundaries (held in Brazil’s Rural Environmental Registry) as well as biophysical data to construct synthetic controls. ​ ​
     
  • Projects: The study analyses 12 projects in the Brazilian amazon. 4 of these projects are part of ClimatePartner’s portfolio. West et al. (2020) come to a positive conclusion for only one of the 12 projects analysed.​ ​
     
  • Main Findings: The study finds no significant evidence, that REDD+ projects have mitigated forest loss. Leakage may have occurred in 3 projects. West et al. (2020) criticise the use of historical data for baseline calculations.​

    ​A detailed ClimatePartner analysis of the study can be found here.

Guizar-Coutiño et al. (2022)

  • Study: The study by Guizar-Coutiño et. al., (2022), conducted a global evaluation on the efficacy of REDD+ projects in particularly reducing deforestation and degradation in moist tropics.​
     
  • Method: Pixel-matching method​
     
  • Approach: Pixels are used as unit of analysis; this allowed the authors to restrict deforestation and degradation estimation to forests that were standing at the time of project implementation (in line with VCS requirements).
     
  • Projects: This study analysed 40 REDD+ projects selected for this study located in 9 countries. 11 projects out of this 40 are part of the ClimatePartner portfolio. Among the 11 projects in the ClimatePartner portfolio the authors find positive analysis results for 10 projects regarding deforestation and for 11 projects regarding degradation.
     
  • Main Findings: The study concludes that incentivizing forest conservation through voluntary site-based projects can slow tropical deforestation and highlights the particular importance of prioritizing financing for areas at greater risk of deforestation.​

    A detailed ClimatePartner analysis of the study can be found here.

West et al. (2023)

  • Study: The study by West et al. (2023) conducts a systematic comparison of deforestation baselines (ex-ante) with counterfactual estimates of deforestation by looking at 27 REDD+ projects across 6 countries.
     
  • Method: Synthetic control method ​ ​
     
  • Approach: Synthetic controls were constructed based on control areas exposed to similar levels of deforestation pressure and similar characteristics as the chosen REDD+ projects.
     
  • Projects: The study analyses 27 projects in total. During the course of the study, 9 projects were discarded for various reasons. It included overall 7 projects from the ClimatePartner portfolio, where 4 had to be discarded during the course of the study.​
     
  • Main Findings: Only a minority of the evaluated projects significantly reduced deforestation compared to the control sites. Adopting dynamics approaches would likely reduce additionality problems.

    A detailed ClimatePartner analysis of the study can be found here.

West et al. (2020)

  • The paper from West et al. from 2020 views REDD+ projects as critical. ​
  • They use a synthetic control method to define counterfactuals for the REDD+ project areas.​ ​
  • Their paper investigates 12 REDD+ projects in the Brazilian amazon. ​ ​
  • 4 of the investigated projects are in the ClimatePartner portfolio. ​ ​
  • The study ignores key factors of deforestation and uses unsuitable datasets as Verra concludes.​

Guizar-Coutiño et al. (2022)

  • Guizar-Coutiño et al. assess 43 projects and clearly support REDD+ programs as an effective way to combat climate change. ​ ​
  • The study adopted a pixel-matching method. ​
  • Guizar-Coutiño et al. also analyze all 12 project areas analysed by West et al. (2020) and come to a positive impact on deforestation for 11 out of those 12 projects.​ ​
  • 14 of the 43 projects assessed are in the ClimatePartner portfolio. 3 of these projects had to be dicarded during the course of the study.​ ​
  • The study is mostly reliable and only contains minor methodological deficiencies.

West et al. (2023)

  • The West et al. (2023) paper is not yet published in a scientific journal.​
  • It assesses 27 projects and comes to critical results for most of the projects. 9 projects were discarded from the analysis during the course of the study.​
  • It included overall 7 projects from the ClimatePartner portfolio, where 4 had to be discarded during the course of the study.​
  • ​The study ignores key factors of deforestation and uses unsuitable datasets as Verra concludes.​

 

Comparison of the results of ClimatePartner portfolio projects

Additional statements and insights

Several organisations responded to the allegations transported by the studies and the publishing media. They conducted either their own analysis or gave statements on their view of the topic: