Tipping points

Tipping points are the moments at which a small change can lead to a sudden, significant, and often irreversible effect on a climate system. Recognising and understanding tipping points is crucial for effective climate action and policymaking.

What are climate tipping points?

When a climate system shifts from one state to another, there can be profound and sometimes catastrophic consequences. This occurs with a threshold behaviour, meaning that once a climate system tips past a certain temperature threshold, it enters a new state. After reaching a tipping point, the process can then reinforce itself with little outside force needed.

Tipping points example

For instance, the tipping point of the Amazon rainforest, called Amazon dieback, will occur as forest loss through deforestation disrupts the balance of rainfall and vegetation. As more of the forest is deforested and degraded, its ability to absorb CO₂ through photosynthesis diminishes. This would transition the Amazon from a carbon sink (absorbing more carbon than releasing) to its opposite, a carbon source, further increasing atmospheric CO₂ levels and exacerbating climate change.

The Amazon dieback involves a complex interplay between deforestation, local and regional climate changes, fire regimes, and global climate interactions. If deforestation reaches a certain threshold, it could trigger a feedback loop of large-scale dieback through more frequent and intense fires that would tip the rainforest into an irreversible, Savannah-like environmental state with drastic global impacts.

Importance of global tipping points

Tipping points help us recognise points of no return and better understand how climate impacts compound and accelerate over time. Once a tipping point is crossed, the changes are often irreversible in our lifetime and can trigger cascading effects, where one change leads to a series of other catastrophic changes.

Transformational changes through concerted actions must be achieved through positive tipping point opportunities mitigating negative tipping point threats. This includes efforts towards decarbonisation, with the goal of net zero emissions by 2050 according to the Paris Agreement.

Another example is reducing the impact of environmental degradation through supporting afforestation and forest management climate projects in vulnerable areas where tipping points are eminent threats. This includes nature-based solutions that focus on both societal and environmental factors using science-based methods.

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